Whelp leaving in two days, won’t have my computer tomorrow since I’m leaving it with my brother for him to upgrade while I’m gone so figure maybe I can get in 1 or 2 games against Frans the day before then that’ll be all. Didn’t end up going to that tournament but I played Phildo and Majorjuggler today, Phil was running Fel/Vader/OGPalp and Bob had his Regionals Bots list. Both are two very good players running two very popular archtypes and I was able to win both games so that was a nice confidence boost. I’ve committed myself to running that list I mentioned in the last post. Part of me wants to drop the Tala to a bandit, tlt to an ion and give fcs to one blue but think I’ll just leave it.
What am I scared of? Obsidian swarm is one obvious list. Though I don’t expect swarms to be incredibly popular and while an obsidian heavy swarm can shoot before me, I can block it up and make it navigate some asteroids while trying to stay close to Howl while I’m not handicapped in such a way. Sounds like Frans is probably gonna run Fel with 5 Obsidians, that’s a real strong list and one I don’t wanna see so should be good practice the night before. Other than that there’s really no one list out there that I’m terrified of, my list is sort of designed to be ok against everything and usually if I lose it’ll be cause I got outplayed and/or got bad dice. Dash could potentially be a tough match up but I’ve got some tricks I can pull against him too. 4 Daggers with HLC and FCS or 3 Daggers and 2 Talas. Either of those would be rough but again those aren’t insanely popular lists. I know TLT’s are on people’s minds but I just don’t figure that many people to go that direction to counter them for those lists will struggle against brobots and fel/vader/ogpalp which I think will be more popular.
How confident am I in making the cut? If I was a betting man I’d say I have about a 30% chance. I feel like I have a good shot of going 6-2 but with my list I’m not gonna win very many games big, I’ll be lucky to have at least 1 100-0 victory which means it’ll be tough to make it in the 6-2 club, basically gonna have to win at least 7 games I’m thinking.
Most people there will have an advantage over me in that they’ll have a lot more live play experience under their belt. Living where I live there’s not a whole lot of opportunities to play live, I basically have to drive an hour which I really only have time to do every 3 weeks or so.
TBH one thing that’s giving me some confidence is I’m pretty sure most of the higher caliber players I know aren’t super confident going in either. Like I know Paul knew he had found something special with his Han build last year, I don’t feel like anyone has something ingenious like that ready to drop on everyone this time around.
Well can’t really think of much else to say. I’m gonna try to enjoy myself regardless but I am an insanely competitive person and my goal’s to make the cut so I’m probably gonna be pretty grumpy if I don’t haha but it’ll be an experience regardless. Definitely looking forward to meeting all the people I’ve met online. Thanks for reading if I don’t post an update after Wednesday it’s cause I missed the cut and passed out drunk!